Russian financial authorities have revised their projected 2025 federal budget deficit to 1.7% of GDP — nearly triple the previous estimate.

In monetary terms, this equates to more than 3.7 trillion rubles (approximately $45 billion).

The growing budget shortfall reflects the consequences of russia’s criminal war against Ukraine, international economic sanctions imposed in response, and a drop in global oil prices.

In its updated macroeconomic outlook, russia’s Ministry of Finance reduced its expected average oil price from $69.70 to $56 per barrel and raised its inflation forecast from 4.5% to 7.6%. However, independent assessments suggest that inflation in russia has already surpassed 10%.

As inflation continues to accelerate, the purchasing power of the russian population is steadily declining.

Faced with deteriorating financial and economic conditions amid a protracted war, the kremlin has been increasing the tax burden on its citizens to offset the growing deficit.

Notably, russia’s 2024 budget had to be revised multiple times. The initially planned 0.9% deficit ultimately reached 1.7% by year’s end — leaving a fiscal gap of 3.485 trillion rubles (over $42 billion).

Another major budget revision is expected in the fall of 2025, as moscow's concealment of the deepening crisis in its public finances becomes increasingly complex.